Gold has had a remarkable start in 2025, with a significant 18.64% return in Q1, marking it as the second-best quarter since Q3 1986. The 2024-25 return currently stands at 39.73%. But with growing concerns over global uncertainty, Trump’s tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, is gold heading towards ₹1 lakh per 10 grams?
Gold Prices Today: Recent Market Trends
As of April 2025, gold on MCX is trading around ₹91,100 per 10 grams, just ₹9,000 away from the ₹1 lakh mark. To hit ₹1 lakh, a further 10% increase is required. Gold has recently surged, with June delivery contracts reaching an all-time high of ₹91,400 per 10 grams.
Geopolitical Factors Boosting Gold
Several global uncertainties are fueling gold’s ascent. President Trump’s tariffs and the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with rising Middle East conflicts, have led investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. The global market for gold has surged past $3,100 per ounce.
The Role of the Weaker Rupee
In the domestic market, the weak rupee has been a significant driver for higher gold prices. A further depreciation of the Indian rupee could contribute to gold prices reaching ₹1 lakh. Sriram Iyer, Senior Analyst at Reliance Securities, believes the outlook is positive, but economic stability and central banks’ policies could slow the rise.
Gold’s Rally: Extended or Just the Beginning?
While the ongoing rally seems strong, Chintan Mehta, CEO of Abans Financial Services, believes it’s an extension of an existing trend rather than a new uptrend. He doesn’t expect gold to reach ₹1 lakh in 2025, suggesting that most bullish factors have already been priced in.
Should You Invest in Gold Amid This Rally?
Gold has shown incredible momentum in early 2025, but experts like Rahul Kalantri from Mehta Equities advise caution. While an additional 10-12% gain could be possible by year-end, investors may want to avoid new investments at these levels. Short-term investors should consider profit booking to protect existing gains.
Conclusion: Is ₹1 Lakh Feasible for Gold in 2025?
With geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and currency depreciation playing a key role, gold’s rally in 2025 could continue. However, whether it will hit ₹1 lakh depends on a variety of factors, including Trump’s tariffs, market sentiment, and the overall stability of the global economy. Investors should weigh the risks and avoid chasing further price hikes without careful consideration.
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