The NIFTY50 index has delivered positive returns in April in 9 out of the last 15 years. However, history reveals a notable trend: when March ends with a strong surge, April tends to underperform. With the index gaining over 6.3% in March 2025 and closing at 23,519, investors are now asking—what lies ahead for April?
Historical Returns of NIFTY50: A Month-on-Month View
Let’s take a quick look at how the NIFTY50 has behaved in previous years from February to April:
| Year | February | March | April | March MoM (%) | April MoM (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4,922 | 5,249 | 5,278 | 6.6% | 0.5% |
| 2011 | 5,333 | 5,833 | 5,750 | 9.4% | -1.4% |
| 2012 | 5,385 | 5,296 | 5,248 | -1.7% | -0.9% |
| 2013 | 5,693 | 5,683 | 5,930 | -0.2% | 4.3% |
| 2014 | 6,277 | 6,704 | 6,696 | 6.8% | -0.1% |
| 2015 | 8,902 | 8,491 | 8,182 | -4.6% | -3.6% |
| 2016 | 6,987 | 7,738 | 7,850 | 10.8% | 1.4% |
| 2017 | 8,880 | 9,174 | 9,304 | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| 2018 | 10,493 | 10,114 | 10,739 | -3.6% | 6.1% |
| 2019 | 10,793 | 11,624 | 11,748 | 7.7% | 1.0% |
| 2020 | 11,202 | 8,598 | 9,860 | -23.2% | 14.6% |
| 2021 | 14,529 | 14,691 | 14,631 | 1.1% | -0.4% |
| 2022 | 16,794 | 17,465 | 17,103 | 4.0% | -2.0% |
| 2023 | 17,304 | 17,360 | 18,065 | 0.3% | 4.0% |
| 2024 | 21,983 | 22,327 | 22,605 | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| 2025 | 22,125 | 23,519* | ? | 6.3% | ? |
*As of March 28, 2025
What Are the Charts Indicating for April 2025?
The NIFTY50 had surged by 17% from April to September 2024, but then corrected sharply between October 2024 and February 2025. In March 2025, the index staged a solid comeback, climbing above the 23,600 level—a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its previous decline.
Key Market Influences in April 2025
New Financial Year and SIP Trends
Historically, Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions drop in April due to a decline in year-end tax-saving investments. SIP inflows have reduced 4 out of 5 times in April over the past five years.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have also shown negative net inflows in April during the same period, which could contribute to short-term volatility.
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Corporate Earnings Season
April marks the start of the Q4 earnings season. A leading rating agency expects 7–8% YoY revenue growth for Indian companies in Q4 FY25, fueled by rural demand recovery and increased government spending. Earnings outcomes will likely influence short-term NIFTY movement.
RBI’s Monetary Policy Shift
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently announced a 25 basis points rate cut along with a $10 billion dollar-rupee swap, aimed at improving liquidity and boosting borrowing and spending. The market’s reaction to the April 9 RBI interest rate decision will be key.
Trump Tariff Uncertainties
US President Trump’s anticipated reciprocal tariffs on countries with higher import duties—including India—could trigger market instability. India may lower tariffs to protect its exports, but investor sentiment may still suffer in April.
Economic Calendar Events for April 2025
| Date | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| April 2 | Manufacturing PMI for March | * |
| April 4 | Services PMI for March | * |
| April 9 | RBI’s Interest Rate Decision | *** |
| April 14 | CPI Inflation for March | *** |
| April 14 | WPI Inflation for March | * |
These indicators will offer clues on inflation, consumption, and growth, guiding market expectations in April.
Conclusion
The NIFTY50’s robust performance in March 2025 is encouraging, but historical patterns suggest caution in April. With macroeconomic uncertainty, central bank actions, Q4 earnings, and global trade tensions all playing a role, April is likely to be volatile. Investors may need to stay alert and look beyond seasonal trends to navigate this high-stakes month.
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